The global warming trend will continue in 2020, with temperatures likely to increase more than one degree above pre-industrial levels again. As per the Met Office forecasts, 2020 will likely be 1.11C warmer than the average between the years 1850-1900.
Next year will continue the series of the warmest years on record as the sixth in a row.
The most influential factor causing the rise as per scientists is greenhouse gas emissions.
Back in 2015, the world first hit one degree above pre-industrial temperatures.
Since then, each year, temperatures have been seen close to or above this mark.
The warmest year on record is 2016 for a strong El Niño effect that made a significant difference.
In this weather phenomenon, temperatures at sea surface increase in the central and eastern Pacific, and it is associated with a range of impacts worldwide, including the overall global warming.
However, the chances of a strong El Niño are low in 2020, according to the Met Office.
Next year, the range of global average temperature will be 0.99C to 1.23C with a central estimate of 1.11C. The researchers pointed towards CO2 emissions and other warming gases as a vital factor.
“Natural events – such as El Niño-induced warming in the Pacific – influence the climate system, but in the absence of El Niño, this forecast gives a clear picture of the strongest factor causing temperatures to rise – greenhouse gas emissions,” said Professor Adam Scaife, the Met Office head of long-range prediction.
The Rising Trend
Despite there is a drop in the use of coal, this year, carbon dioxide emissions have risen slightly, researchers stated.
The annual analysis of emission trends of the Global Carbon Project suggests that CO2 will rise by 0.6% in 2019.
The continuing strong growth in the utilization of oil and gas is primarily behind this rise.
The scale of emissions directly related to temperatures, scientists say.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) suggests in the provisional figures released earlier this month that 2019 is on course of becoming the second or third warmest year ever.
In that case, 2015-2019 would be the warmest five-year period on record.
The Met Office seems confident about its prediction for 2020 based on what has happened in previous years.
Last year, at this time, they estimated that 2019 would be 1.10C above the 1850-1900 mark, and the actual temperature recorded this year from January to October is a global mean 1.11C.
“The forecast for 2020 would place next year amongst the six warmest years on record, which would all have occurred since 2015,” said Dr Doug Smith, a Met Office research fellow.
“All of these years have been around 1.0C warmer than the pre-industrial period.”
As temperatures keeping close to the one-degree mark, scientists are seriously concerned that the world is on track to breach the limit of 1.5C. As many researchers repeatedly say, it is the threshold of increasingly devastating impacts.
In 2020, countries need to ramp up their plans on an emergency basis to ensure that the world stays below the 1.5C mark.
The countries from all over the world will meet next November in Glasgow, where several critical issues of the recent COP25 summit in Madrid will be carried forward.
The critical issue like increasing ambition to curb emissions will be the main topic of the discussions that will be presided over by the UK.
Britain has been warned by the Committee on Climate Change to do better to meet its own targets and to earn credibility with negotiators in Glasgow.
